![]() The tragic fact is the Weather Service is missing strong tornadoes that are obvious on radar and, in a few cases, even after they are reported by trusted ground spotters and chasers. Now, they are behind a login and password.īefore going further, allow me to stipulate: some tornadoes are not “warnable.” This can be because they are brief, because of problems with technology, or because of our incomplete knowledge of tornado science. The NWS’s tornado warning accuracy statistics used to be out in the open. How have things changed since 2020? We don’t know. I wrote a piece for The Washington Postin May, 2021, which documented this trend.īy then, the tornado warning deterioration was well underway. I have been tracking this for the last dozen years. The quality of tornado warnings is deteriorating at an alarming rate! All of this should have resulted in new levels of tornado warning accuracy. Plus, the new generation of GOES weather satellites, the first that could sense lightning rates (which are sometimes very useful in determining in advance which thunderstorms will go severe or tornadic) was in operation. At that same time, the radars were being “dual-polarized” to allow detection of tornado’s lofted debris for better tracking. From 2005 to 2011, National Weather Service tornado warnings averaged 13.3 minutes and tornadoes were detected in advance 73.3% of the time. ![]() Kevin Simmons demonstrates that 13 to 15 minutes of “lead time” (the interval of time from when a tornado warning is issued to when the tornado arrives) is ideal. Those radars and the intense, month-long classroom training required of every meteorologist for their operation, led to unprecedented tornado warning success. That changed with better-trained storm chasers and spotters, combined with the National Weather Service’s NEXRAD – a national network of Doppler radars installed in the 1990’s. The Bureau achieved significant success in forecasting but, largely because of lack of adequate tools, was less successful with tornado warnings (the short term “take cover now!” messages). In the 1950’s, the Weather Bureau – forerunner of today’s National Weather Service – was dragged, largely by outside events, into the tornado forecast and warning business. In spite of some signs of progress, it was shut down because tornado forecasts would, allegedly, “cause panic.” It was said that more people would die from panic induced by the forecasts than would be killed by the tornadoes. In the late 19 th Century, the Army Signal Corps attempted to create a tornado forecasting service. Tornadoes have been a bane of living in the United States since pre-Colonial times. In spite of better meteorological technology than ever and more raw scientific knowledge about storms, we are seeing a serious regression in a vital government program: the National Weather Service’s tornado warning program.
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